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Slots manufacturers and casinos swear it’s impossible, but many people claim they know how to tell if a slot machine is going to hit. Some say just by watching, they can tell when it’s “due”. Others say they emit a hot or cold aura. We’ll examine these theories and more to get to the bottom of the mystery.
- How Slots Work: Before we get into theoretical suppositions, you should know exactly what it is that makes today’s modern slots tick. Random RNG algorithms control each spin, while a predestined RTP gives the casino its edge.
- Due for a Win: “This slot machine hasn’t paid more than $5 in two hours. It’s due for a win!” Is that really true? Learn why it isn’t, and at the same time, it is…
- Hot & Cold Slots: If you’ve ever gone swimming in a pool, you know what it’s like to hit a cold spot, or worse, a warm spot (ew!). Some people claim slots emit the same thermal vibes.
- Luck & Variance: Gamblers call it luck. Slots makers call it variance. It’s the same thing. Lucky/variance is the fluctuating up/downswing that occurs between meeting a game’s RTP.
- Tips for Winning Slots: Whether you’re instincts are spot on or dead wrong, there are provably effective methods to increase your chances of winning slot machines.
Disclaimer – Not all forms of gambling are legal in all provinces of Canada. The legal age to gamble also varies by province. Breaking the law is a serious matter. The information provided on this website is meant for educational purposes only, and we will not be held liable for any irresponsible / illegal activity on your part. Know the gambling laws in your province and follow them. The following pages provide more information on Canadian gambling laws: Alberta – British Columbia – Manitoba – Newfoundland & Labrador – New Brunswick – Nova Scotia Northwest Territory – Nunavut – Ontario – Prince Edward Island – Quebec – Saskatchewan – Yukon |
How Slot Machines Work – RNG, RTP and Volatility |
The first slot machines were invented over one hundred years ago, long before computers came along. They were mechanical devices featuring an array of drums. On the drums were various symbols. When a lever was pulled, the drums spun around, coming to a random stop. If the symbols matched up, you won. If not, you lost. Figuring out your odds of winning the big prize was as simple as multiplying the number of symbols on each drum together. Not anymore… Since the dawn of computer technology, these games have been programmed to defy traditional odds. There are no drums. The number of symbols per reel is not static. Everything is controlled by a computer chip running a software program, designed to pay out a very specific percentage of its take. The three main programmable functions of a slot machine are the random number generator (RNG), the return to player (RTP), and the volatility. Let’s take a closer look… Random Number Generator (RNG)Remember the movie, The Matrix, when the green numbers kept raining down the computer screen? That’s an RNG. It’s a random strain of seemingly endless numbers generated by a computer. The algorithm it generates determines an outcome. There are countless applications for an RNG in the real world, but few so famous as casinos games. In a slot machine, the RNG determines exactly what symbols will land in each position on the reels. If you could see the RNG, you would never be able to read it. Each and every number in the sequence is changing with each passing nanosecond. It does not stop until the exact moment a player presses the SPIN button. At that very moment, the sequence of symbols is determined by the number produced. As a player, we still see the reels spinning as they come to a slow halt, but the machine already knows where they are going to land, because the RNG told it so. The whole purpose of the RNG is to ensure no one – not the players, the casino managers, or the players – is able to predict what will happen on any given spin. It’s all about timing. Press at just the right moment, and the jackpot is awarded. For this reason, a machine could pay back-to-back jackpots just as easily as withholding the jackpot for more than a year. Knowing that this is how a game works, it’s hard to imagine that anyone could know how to predict when a slot machine will win. And yet, so many seem capable of doing so. More on that in a moment… Return to Player (RTP)The RTP is the amount of money a machine pays out, compared to what it takes in. The RTP is always displayed as a percentage. For those of you familiar with how “house edge” works, the RTP is the opposite of the house edge. RTP refers to the amount players win back, whereas house edge is the amount the casino wins. Put them together, and you get a total 100%. For example, let’s say a slot machine has a 95% RTP. This means the game will pay back 95% of its monetary intake over time. The other 5% is the amount the casino wins. Theoretically, if you were to spin the reels 100 times on this machine at $1 per spin, you would end up with $95 left. The important word here, however, is “theoretically”. RTP is always theoretical. Yes, the machine will meet its RTP. It’s a computer. They don’t make mistakes. But the RTP will only be met over a very long period of time. We’re talking 20-25 years. So no, you’re not going to win exactly $95 back and lose $5 for every $100 you wager. If that were the case, every player would lose and no one would ever want to come back to the casino. That’s where volatility comes in… VolatilityA game’s volatility determines how often it is likely to strike a winning combination, and the average size of each prize paid. It can be low, medium, or high. A low volatility game is one that pays out very small amounts very often. A high volatility game will pay high prizes, but not very frequently. And a medium volatility is a balanced game, where mid-sized payouts occur on a regular, but not too regular, basis. The volatility of a machine will not alter its RTP. Over time, they all perform equally. But in the short term, their attributes can seem very different. At low volatility, a machine will arrive at its intended RTP more frequently, whereas a high volatility game will have much greater upswings and downswings.
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How to Tell if a Slot Machine is Due to Win |
If a game has not paid out a decent sized win in a relatively long period of time, it is said to be “due” to hit. When a progressive jackpot reaches record height, more people play it because they feel it’s due to strike any moment. This certainly seems like a logical mode of action. The game will pay out big at some point, and the longer it’s been since the last big payout, the closer that moment has to be. But is it really possible to predict exactly when it will happen? As we’ve already learned, a slot machine’s RNG makes it impossible to know the exact moment a game will pay out a jackpot. But knowing when a relatively large payout is due – that’s really not so far-fetched. We know that game’s are destined to meet their RTP. And we know that an RNG determines every outcome the moment the SPIN button is pressed. Wouldn’t it make sense that the likelihood of the RNG producing a winning combination of numbers would be amplified by an actual RTP that is far below its intended RTP? The real problem with this theory is that you have to know what a game’s actual RTP is, compared to its intended RTP. The only way to know if a game is far enough behind to potentially impact the value of the RNG algorithm is to sit back and watch the game for a long period of time. If you have the patience for it, give it a shot. |
Does this Slot Machine Have a Temperature Gauge? |
Some say slot machines can be hot or cold. Some believe this is a metaphorical statement, while others swear that game’s can produce a genuine thermal output. We’ll start wit the metaphorical… A slot machine is hot when it is producing above average wins. It could be paying more frequently than its volatility implies, or it might be paying larger prizes than average. There are slots enthusiasts out there that will only play hot slot machines, hoping to ride that wave of success all the way to shore. Then there are players who avoid these game’s for fear they’ve paid all they’re going to pay for a good long while. The opposite is true of a “cold” slot machine. A cold machine is one that is paying well below average. As we’ve already discussed, a game that hasn’t paid out a decent prize in a long time gets labeled “due” for a win. Contrary to hot-slot-lovers, some players will lie in wait for a slot machine to become very cold, then pounce on it as soon as the previous player leaves, expecting a quick strike. As for those who believe a machine can become physically and detectable hot or cold, I’ve never experienced this myself. Maybe it takes a special kind of person – someone with a sixth sense, or one who can sees auras. Those who attest to its accuracy say a hot machine is ready to pay, and a cold one is not. My suggestion would be to walk the aisles and, if you feel a warm spot, give it a try. |
The Correlation Between Slot Variance & Luck |
A slot machine’s variance is how far it strays from its RTP. It is similar to volatility, except that volatility defines how much it should stray, whereas variance defines how much its actually straying at any given time. Variance is, in reality, what the majority of gamblers refer to as “luck”. When a player is having a good day at the casino, we say he is very lucky. One who is having a bad day is said to be unlucky. Luck is either on your side, or it’s not. As fun-loving gamblers, we attribute a lot to luck, or a lack thereof. But variance is the technically appropriate term. It is variance that allows some casino players to win large amounts of money, without hurting the casino’s bottom line. Those who win are on the receiving end of a game’s variance (lucky). But many more players lose, or fall on the negative side of that variance (unlucky). If one player wins a $10k jackpot, imagine how many players have to lose to pay for it, and still ensure the casino gets its due. Suffice it to say, for all those who get lucky, many more will be unlucky. It is those who genuinely believe that you make your own luck that tend to proscribe to the theory that you can tell when a slot machine is about to win. Which brings us to our final segment… |
Five Ways to Better Your Chances of Winning on Slots |
After all you’ve read, do you think you know how to tell if a slot machine is going to hit? Whether you answered yes or no to that question, here is some genuine strategic advice that really will give you the best odds of leaving the casino a winner. 1. Higher RTP is BetterLook for slot machines with the highest RTP. It doesn’t mean you’re going to win, but it does increase the potential for winning. Not all games will display their RTP, but most will define it near the end of the paytable’s Info section. 2. Play Online SlotsLand-based casino slots have a typical RTP range of 85%-95%. Online slot machines have much higher RTPs, often ranging from 95%-97%. Online slots are also more likely to reveal their RTPs in the Info section. 3. Utilize Free SpinsTake full advantage of free spins bonuses whenever possible. These promotions come with wagering requirements and other stipulations that must be met before you can cash out any winnings, but it’s hard to complain when those spins aren’t coming out of your pocket book. 4. Beware Branded TitlesAs a society, we are drawn to things we are familiar with. If we like something, we flock to its brand mimicry. Case in point – The Ellen DeGeneres Show. It is immensely popular. If you love Ellen and her show, and you walk into a casino and see her face plastered on a slot machine of the same name, odds are you’ll want to play that game. Casinos and slot manufacturers know this, and use it to their advantage, which is why branded slots tend to have the lowest RTPs. Steer clear. 5. Ask the LocalsLocal slots players who frequent a casino know exactly which games pay out best, and which ones do not. So long as you’re not infringing on their seats, they are usually happy to share that information. In fact, there are social media groups dedicated to this topic. All you have to do is ask. |
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Slot machines are the most popular games in the casino, although they’re not as popular as they used to be. In some casinos, 80% of the profits are generated by the one-armed bandits. The question on everyone’s mind seems to be the same: how do you win on slot machines?
I wish I had a magical formula I could see you that would ensure you’d walk away from the slots a winner. Unfortunately, I don’t have one. Luckily, neither does anyone else.
Slot machines are entirely random, and they’re programmed to pay out less than the odds of winning, so in the long run, slots are good for nothing more than eating up your gambling bankroll. If you still want to play slots after understanding that, well, good for you. That’s not a problem.
There are some things you can do to improve the odds, though. That’s what I’ll focus on in the rest of this post—actual, practical things you can do to improve your odds of winning on slot machines.
1. Understand the Theoretical Cost of Playing Slot Machines
The savviest gamblers understand the math behind gambling games better than most people. If you grok the way slots work better than other people, you’ll be able to make better informed decisions about what to play and how.
The first concept to understand about slot machines is that each outcome has a probability attached to it. When you multiply those outcomes by the probability of achieving them and add them all up, you get the mathematically expected return for the game.
Here’s an absurd example that illustrates the point well:
You’re playing a slot machine that costs $1 per spin. 50% of the time, you’ll get a combination of symbols that will result in $1 in winnings. The other 50% of the time, you’ll get a combination that results in no winnings at all.
But to keep things interesting, slot machine designers have multiple combinations with multiple prize amounts. When you do all the math, such a game has a theoretical payback percentage—the percentage of each bet that the game returns in winnings.
These payback percentages vary wildly from game to game, from casino to casino, and from location to location. In competitive areas like the Strip in Las Vegas, slot machines might have a payback percentage of 96% on average. In non-competitive places like the airport, these games might have a payback percentage closer to 75%.
For the purposes of this post, I’m just going to assume that the average slot machine has a payback percentage of 88%. That’s the equivalent of a 12% house edge.
Can You Win At Slot Machines
To calculate how much money you can expect to lose playing such a slot machine, you simply multiply the amount of money you’re betting per spin by the number of spins you’re making per hour. Then you multiply that by the house edge, and that’s your hourly expected loss.
So if you’re playing a dollar slot machine and betting $3 per spin, and you’re making 600 spins per hour, you’re putting $1800 per hour into action.
The casino expects to win, on average—in the long run–$216 per hour.
That doesn’t compare favorably with other casino games, by the way. Contrast that with blackjack. Let’s say you’re playing blackjack with perfect basic strategy, and you’re getting in 100 hands per hour. And let’s also say you’re betting $5 per hand. That’s $500 per hour you’re putting into action.
If you’re using perfect basic strategy, the house edge in blackjack is probably 1%. Your expected hourly loss is $5 per hour.
That’s a big difference.
One might almost assume from this that the best way to win at slot machines is to refuse to play them at all.
2. Understand What’s So Attractive about Slot Machines
Most gamblers understand on some level, even if it’s almost unconsciously, that slot machines are a lousy bet.
But they’re still the most popular game in the casino.
How does that happen?
I can guess at some of the reasons slots are so popular. Some of these reasons are easy to understand, too. Remember how I pointed out that you’d only lose $5/hour playing blackjack if you use perfect basic strategy?
Memorizing and implementing basic strategy in blackjack requires work and effort. Some gamblers don’t want to put in any effort toward that sort of thing. They’d prefer to play a game that’s easy to understand and easy to play. And nothing could be easier than mindlessly pressing the spin button on a slot machine.
Also, when you play slot machines, you usually have the opportunity to win a prize of 1000 units or so on a single spin. (A “unit” is the amount you’re betting. If you’re betting a dollar, then a lot of slot machines will have a jackpot of $1000.) Many gamblers like the idea of winning a big prize.
Compare that again to blackjack. You go to all that effort to learn basic strategy, and the biggest prize you can win is 150% of your initial bet. It might be a little higher than that if you get to split your hand or double down. But realistically, most of the time, you’re only going to win a single unit or 2 on a hand of blackjack.
Finally, slot machines are designed for the express purpose of keeping gamblers interested. The companies which design these machines spend countless dollars researching which images, color schemes, and sound effects are going to be most attractive to gamblers. Wheel of Fortune slot machines are no accident. They’re the most popular game for a reason.
If your goal is to play an easy game where you have a shot at a big jackpot, slots might be the right game for you. You just want to decide beforehand if the trade-off is worth it.
3. Improving Your Chances of Winning and Reducing Your Potential Losses Are Both Realistic, Worthy Goals
Let’s talk about how you can make playing slot machines less expensive in the long run.
The first and easiest way to reduce the amount of money you lose playing slots is to slow way down. The biggest factor determining your hourly expected loss is the number of spins you make per hour.
Really fast slots players can make 1200 spins per hour. Average slots players probably get in 600 spins per hour.
But if you go slow, you can probably get down to 300 spins per hour.
In the example I gave earlier, we predicted you’d lose $216 on average per hour. If you were to slow down and only place 300 spins per hour, that number would drop to $108 per hour.
Maybe that doesn’t increase your probability of being a big winner, but if you really want to maximize your probability of winning, you have to switch to a different game entirely—one where you can get an edge. That’s impossible with slots. To get an edge, you need to be able to count cards in blackjack or play expert level poker. There are other ways, too, but they’re an order of magnitude of difference from slot machine play.
You can also reduce your expected losses by playing for less money. There’s a big difference between making 300 spins per hour at $3 per spin and making 300 spins per hour at 75 cents per spin. Your total hourly action drops from $900 per hour to $225 per hour.
4. Use Some Practical Tips for Improving Your Chances
That 12% house edge that I keep mentioning is just for illustrative purposes. The truth is, most slot machines have different payout percentages. Your goal should be to find a slot machine with a higher payback percentage rather than a lower payback percentage.
One easy way to compare slot machines is to look at the size of the jackpot. The bigger the top prize is, the lower the payback percentage is. This is especially true when you start looking at progressive slot machine jackpots.
The probability of winning one of those huge $10 million+ jackpots is comparable to winning the lottery, which is to say that the odds are astronomical. Since a portion of the overall payback percentage for that game is attributable to that jackpot, which you’ll probably never win, your practical payback percentage is much lower.
So if you’re choosing between 2 slot machines, choose the one with the smaller jackpot.
Here’s another trick:
Play the highest denomination machine you can afford. The higher the denomination, the better the payback percentage is. That’s a general rule of thumb, but it’s not bad strategy.
And since a lot of lower denomination slot machines push the multiple lines/multiple coins play so hard, you might be betting the same amount per spin anyway. If you’re playing a penny slot machine and betting on 5 lines with 5 coins per line, you’re betting 25 cents per spin.
You’d probably have better odds playing a quarter machine for one payline and one coin per spin.
And it should go without saying that the location where you’re playing has more to do with the payback percentage than almost any other factor.
But I’m not talking about whether the machine is near the restaurant or on the end of a bank of machines or something like that. I’m talking about the location of the casino itself.
The biggest payback percentages on slots in the United States are at the Las Vegas Strip casinos. That’s because that’s the most competitive marketplace there is.
On the other hand, if you’re at the airport in Las Vegas, well… those are the only games in town, right?
They don’t have any real competition, and they know you’re just killing time and playing on a lark, so they don’t need to provide a competitive payback percentage to get your business.
This is also true of bars and gas stations, etc. They’re not competing with other gambling businesses. They’re just looking to make a quick buck while you’re stranded there doing whatever kind of business you need done.
5. Don’t Pay ANY Attention to Silly Slot Machine Systems Being Sold by So-Called Experts
One of the most cringe-worthy gambling books I’ve ever read was John Patrick’s Slots. It’s a collection of 2 or 3 dozen slot machine systems that are supposed to increase your probability of being a winner at slots.
Most of his advice has to do with switching machines when you’re “running cold.” He has a limit for the number of “naked pulls” you’ll accept. (I think it was 7.)
A naked pull is a spin of the reels where you don’t win anything. If you get 7 naked spins in a row, that’s supposed to be a sign that the machine is cold and you should switch to another game.
He also has some general guidelines for session bankrolls. He suggests that you have a win goal and a loss limit for each session, something like 20% of your bankroll for that session. So if you sit down at a game with $100, and you get down to $80, it’s time to quit and switch machines. Same thing if you get up to $120. Quit and switch machines.
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You’ll also find people selling books about slots that are supposedly written by “slot machine technicians” who can help you predict when a machine is getting ready to pay out. One of these clues is supposedly the “zig zag” method. The idea is that you find a slot machine where 2 out of 3 winnings symbols are visible at the same time. Such a machine is supposedly close to paying out.
This is just nonsense, too. Every spin of the reels is an independent event, and what happened on previous spins has no bearing on what’s going to happen on subsequent spins.
6. Join the Players’ Club
I have mixed feelings about the players’ club. On one hand, I’m not crazy about sharing my personal information with the casino. They’re going to use that information to advertise to me. I understand why that makes sense for them, but it makes less sense for me.
But from a purely mathematical perspective, it makes sense to join the slots club and always play with the card inserted into the machine. The casino measures how much time you spend on the machines and rewards you with rebates and comps accordingly.
Can You Win Playing Slot Machines
Don’t buy into the myth that playing slots with the card inserted interferes with your ability to win. That’s just silly. The casinos don’t need to cheat in this way. The games already have a mathematical edge, and the rebates and comps are programmed in such a way that the casino is still hugely profitable.
But even though the comps are much smaller than the amount of money you’re expected to lose, it’s still money that you shouldn’t walk away from. After all, there’s no difference between playing with the card inserted and not inserting the card.
You should milk those comps for everything they’re worth.
Conclusion
How do you win on slot machines?
The short answer is simple enough:
Get lucky.
Slot machine games are entirely random, so there’s no way to get an edge over these games. Anyone who tries to tell you different is hoping you’ll buy something from them. And what they’re selling is worthless.
The best you can do is hope to lower the casino’s edge over you. You can also adjust the way you play so that you minimize the amount of money you lose.
But forget about finding some foolproof way to beat the slot machines. People selling that information are the modern equivalent of snake oil salesmen.
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